However, the expected pace of civilian nuclear proliferation in the middle east now appears to be slower than was believed in the middle of the previous decade, when the start of the programs was announced. Dec 17, 2008 if diplomacy or force fails to prevent iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, a declared u. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east jewish virtual library. Nuclear weapons acquisition in different countries is convincingly explained by distinct. July 2011 nuclear capabilities in the middle east mark fitzpatrick background paper eu seminar to promote confidence building and in support of a process aimed at establishing a zone free of wmd. The west is focusing on iran, but israel would have to play ball, too. There are an estimated 23,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, 22,000 of them belonging to the united states and russia. The last decade has witnessed an explosion of popular and scholarly attention focussed on nuclear issues around the globe and especially in the middle east. Nuclear electricity generation capacity in the middle east is expected to increase from 3.
Middle east countries plan to add nuclear to their. The risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east, g. The middle east and north africa mena is both the source of concern about weapons of mass. Instead, people fear nuclear armageddon, and the power of the atom is becoming synonymous with death and destruction. Letters addressed to the secretarygeneral confirming support for declaring the middle east a region free from weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.
Pdf the middle east is undergoing fundamental transformations that could change the prospects. Understanding the scope and motivations for this development and its implications for global security is essential. I will argue that libyas nuclear program, as well as the decision to discontinue the pursuit of nuclear. The spread of such weapons to groups and states that could threaten china, particular through iran, may become a source of concern, leading to greater chinese willingness to block destabilising transfers of. The genesis and rise of missile proliferation in the middle east missile and wmd proliferation in the middle east were initially generated late in the 1950s as a response to the suez crisis and israels plans. Entire world wants nuclear weaponsfree middle east except for usa and israel. Pullback from middle east will fuel proliferation of nuclear weapons experts say obama policies not working al qaeda militants in the aljazeera region on the iraqi side of the syriairaq border. Middle east countries plan to add nuclear to their generation. Israel is the middle easts principal nuclear power, though it has never officially acknowledged possession of nuclear weapons. The conference also adopted a resolution calling for establishment of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the middle east. In 1995, npt state parties agreed to extend the treaty indefinitely in order to move forward with the establishment of a wmd see key terms freezone in the middle east hence the. The dangers of an iran getting nuclear weapons that then leads to a freeforall in the middle east is something that i think would be very dangerous for the world. In addition, revelations about the existence of an illicit nuclear proliferation network run by a.
A still relevant analysis made by a congressional committee in february 2008, entitled chain reaction. Weapons of mass destruction in the middle east and north africa iai. The pursuit of nuclear weapons in the middle east cuny. In addition, governments should consider the bold possibility of joining. Middle east free of nuclear weapons can become reality the. Rouhani is calling for nuclearfree zone in the middle east. Proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east.
The npt conference is breathing new life into a 15yearold proposal to create a nuclear weapons free middle east. Middle east studies at the marine corps university mes monographs no. Nuclear free zone in the middle east to the upper echelons of international relations, the non proliferation treaty npt see key terms and the united nations. Pdf multinational uranium enrichment in the middle east. Bahgat looks at the economic and political forces that shape this threat to world peace and at the prospectslargely unrealistic, he saysof establishing a. Of course, the best is to dissuade iran from going nuclear in the first place. A nuclear weapon free zone nwfz in the middle east was first proposed in the. Ironically, it was first proposed in the united nations general assembly in.
If diplomacy or force fails to prevent iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, a declared u. In the wake of the recent nuclear tests of india and pakistan, upsetting the nuclear equilibrium that had prevailed for the past 24 years since the initial indian test in 1974, chinese leaders may be reconsidering their. July 2011 nuclear capabilities in the middle east mark fitzpatrick background paper eu seminar to promote confidence building and in support of a process aimed at establishing a zone free of wmd and means of delivery in the middle east brussels, 67 july 2011. Executive branch approaches to nuclear proliferation in a. Executive branch approaches to nuclear proliferation in a changing middle east posted on september 21, 2011 by ookla12 i have been fascinated with the middle east and its security challenges since my sophomore year of high school, when i sat on a couch in my uncles home watching the 2006 lebanon war unfold on cnn.
Thus, china continues to be a major source of concern in the area of arms control and proliferation in the middle east. May 04, 2010 the npt conference is breathing new life into a 15yearold proposal to create a nuclear weapons free middle east. The united arab emirates uae will lead nearterm growth by installing 5. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east and south asia. The push for nuclear power for saudi arabia raises fears of weapons proliferation in middle east. Middle east free of nuclear weapons can become reality. Just one week after implementation day, when iran completed its nuclear commitments and the nuclearrelated sanctions were lifted, he spoke about the current state of nonproliferation affairs in the middle east with michael moran, visiting media fellow on peace and security at carnegie corporation of new york. Saudi energy deal push sparks nuclear weapon concerns,the hill, by rebecca kheel 031818 nuclear nonproliferation advocates are sounding the alarm about a potential nuclear energy deal between saudi arabia and the united states, saying the exceptions the kingdom is seeking could lead to. The genesis and rise of missile proliferation in the middle east missile and wmd proliferation in the middle east were initially generated late in the 1950s as a response to the suez crisis and israels plans to build an independent nuclear and missile arsenal. Creating a nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east is actually not a new idea. Nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament arms control. A wmdfree zone in the middle east belfer center for science and. Today, nine states have nuclear weapons and many more can easily acquire those, although only five states are officially recognized as possessing nuclear weapons by the 1968 nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt.
Avoiding a nuclear arms race in the middle east, concluded that, an iranian nuclear weapon frightens the saudis to their core, and would compel the saudis to seek nuclear weapons. Proliferation consortium or any of its individual institutes. One was that iran could not be trusted as an honest negotiating partner at nuclear talks due to its recent record of covert development. If detonated, these weapons would cause the equivalent of about 150,00 hiroshima bombs. For much of the past decade, the conversation on nuclear proliferation in the middle east played out against a gloomy set of assumptions. The proposal for a wmdfree zone in the middle east has been on the table at the united nations, and at the nuclear non proliferation treaty npt, for decades. Dec, 20 creating a nuclear weapon free zone in the middle east is actually not a new idea. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the nonproliferation treaty or npt. Another held that irans pursuit of a nuclear weapon posed a major. Sep 21, 2011 executive branch approaches to nuclear proliferation in a changing middle east posted on september 21, 2011 by ookla12 i have been fascinated with the middle east and its security challenges since my sophomore year of high school, when i sat on a couch in my uncles home watching the 2006 lebanon war unfold on cnn. Israels acquisition of nuclear weapons and to restrain further proliferation in the region. As regional violence mounts and the region appears increasingly volatile, particular attention is being paid to the potential for the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the middle east. Steps toward a middle east zone free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction. These are the underlying questions in gawdat bahgats intriguing new study of nuclear proliferation in six key middle east countries.
Federation of american scientists middle east nuclear. Irans acquisition of nuclear weapons and longrange missile delivery. Egypt, iran, iraq, israel, libya, and saudi arabia. Nonproliferation strategy for the changing middle east. Israel is not a member of the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, and parts of.
Nuclearfree zone in the middle east to the upper echelons of international relations, the nonproliferation treaty npt see key terms and the united nations. If the region is host to a shiapersian bomb and a jewishisraeli bomb. Iaea 2005, communication dated 12 september 2005 from the. Adroit policy choices and practices by the obama administration can build a bulwark against a middle east nuclear tipping phenomenon. Steps towards the establishment of such a zone began in the 1960s led to a joint declaration by egypt and iran in 1974 which resulted in a general assembly resolution broadened in 1990 through the mubarak initiative to cover all weapons of mass destruction. Last year, king abdullah of jordan told israels haaretz newspaper that the rules had changed on the nuclear issue in the middle east. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east center for. The push for nuclear power for saudi arabia raises fears of. The middle east post npt agreement at the height of the cold war, the two superpowers, the united states and the soviet union, had an estimated combined arsenal of 30,000 nuclear weapons. The ungas first committee, which oversees disarmament and international security, voted on november 1 to overwhelmingly approve a draft resolution entitled establishment of a nuclearweaponfree zone in the region of the middle east.
It would seem that widespread proliferation of missiles and nuclear weapons in the middle east would not serve chinese interests. International concern for the proliferation of nuclear weapons has continued to mount. Nuclear proliferation in the middle e ast iii should iran acquire a nuclear capability, intense pressure among some other states in the region to pursue nuclear weapons will likely emerge. Unga decides top risk of nuclear proliferation in mideast. This is because of various obstacles, some political and diplomatic, but. Obstacles to a nuclearweaponsfree zone in the middle east. This resolution was intended to win support for the indefinite npt extension from arab states, which objected to israels status outside the npt and its assumed possession of nuclear weapons.
He went on to announce that his country planned to develop its first nuclear power plant by 2015 for electricity and desalination. Ironically, it was first proposed in the united nations general assembly in 1974 by no other than the major. According to a 20 report by us experts, israels nuclear arsenal includes 80 nuclear warheads, with enough fissile material potentially to double that number. The proposal for a wmdfree zone in the middle east has been on the table at the united nations, and at the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt, for decades. Disec preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons in the. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as. Jun 02, 2009 iran, israel, and the effects of nuclear conflict in the middle east. By volha charnysh, napf intern from nuclear proliferation. History is a grim warning, however, that deterrence does not always work and rational bargaining often fails.
As long as nuclear weapons exist, the threat of their use exists, rouhani said, citing the american bombings of hiroshima and nagasaki in 1945. A proliferation cascade in the middle east is not a foregone conclusion. Middle east nuclear weapon free zone delivered by holly. Today, nine states have nuclear weapons and many more can easily acquire those, although only five states are officially recognized as possessing nuclear weapons by the 1968 nuclear non proliferation treaty npt. Middle eastern nuclear weaponfree zone me nwfz has not yet. Feasibility and consequences of nonstate actor acquisition and.
Nuclear proliferation in the middle east iran intelligence. The middle east nuclear weapon free zone menwfz is a proposed agreement similar to other nuclearweaponfree zones. Iran, israel, and the effects of nuclear conflict in the middle east. A nuclear weapon free zone nwfz in the middle east was first proposed in the united nations general assembly in 1974 by iran and egypt in an effort to roll back israels acquisition of nuclear weapons and to restrain further proliferation in the region by having all states join both a nwfz and the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt. Pullback from middle east will fuel proliferation of. The notion of a middle east nuclear weapon free zone, or a weap. The middle east nuclearweaponfree zone menwfz is a longstanding, united nationsdriven proposal to prohibit nuclear weapons in the middle east. But, israel never hid its disdain for the fissile material cutoff treaty fmct, for joining such a treaty, especially if it includes verification mechanisms, would. Preventing nuclear proliferation in the middle east postjcpoa.
Nuclear proliferation in the middle east domestic preparedness. These middle east nations are increasingly apprehensive about the threat of a nuclear iran and the failure of the international community to take decisive actions to prevent tehran. Access to nuclear energy technology by nonnuclear weapons states nnws inevitably leads to concerns about the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons as. Irans acquisition of a substantial enrichment capacity based on these. Saudi energy deal push sparks nuclear weapon concerns,the hill, by rebecca kheel 031818 nuclear nonproliferation advocates are sounding the alarm about a potential nuclear energy deal between saudi arabia and the united states, saying the exceptions the kingdom is seeking could. Foreign policy at brookings arms control and nonproliferation series iii 123 agreement an agreement for peaceful nuclear. Steps toward a middle east zone free of nuclear international. Since then, many other resolutions have been introduced to reach the same accord. Jun 22, 2011 a still relevant analysis made by a congressional committee in february 2008, entitled chain reaction.
Apr 19, 2007 in addition, revelations about the existence of an illicit nuclear proliferation network run by a. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the non proliferation treaty or npt. Iran, israel, and the effects of nuclear conflict in the. Two middle east case studies malfrid brauthegghammer pakistangs motivations for possessing nuclear weapons and challenges to the eunitary rational actorf model for. Van doren paper on proliferation in the middle east.
In november 2014, the united nations general assembly sought to counter the risk of nuclear proliferation in the middle east with a resolution recognizing that this would pose a serious. This report provides an assessment of key security issues that may emerge in the event iran acquires a nuclear capability, to include. The nuclear question in the middle east working group summary report in early 2010, cirs began work on the nuclear question in the middle east research initiative. Nuclear proliferation remains one of the most pressing and important issues in international politics and security. Nuclear proliferation pdf carnegie council for ethics in. Mar 19, 2018 the push for nuclear power for saudi arabia raises fears of weapons proliferation in middle east. The cases of israel and india a thesis submitted by kareem mahmoud kamel to the department of political science may2000 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of master of. Khan, which although fortunately now defunct provided fissile material production technology and nuclear weaponsrelated design information to both libya and iran, help underscore the dangers of proliferation in the middle east. Managing nuclear proliferation in the middle east brookings. The middle east has been a hotbed of nuclear proliferation for five decades. Israel is the only country in the middle east that had not and will not sign the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. Much of the debate over proliferation focuses on the possession of nuclear weapons rather than their use in warfighting and their effects.